Welcome to my picks, predictions, and condemnations for the 80th Academy Awards, honoring the “best” films of 2007. This year is better than most as far as nominations go, with only a single glaring shutout in Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead. That said, let’s get to the awards.
Best Actor
Who’s nominated?
- George Clooney – Michael Clayton
- Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
- Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
- Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah
- Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
Who got the shaft?
Joseph Gordon-Levitt for his performance in The Lookout.
Who should win?
Daniel Day-Lewis takes it by a nose over Viggo Mortensen. Both men disappear into their respective roles, but Day-Lewis’ performance in There Will Be Blood resonates much stronger.
Who will win?
Daniel Day-Lewis.
Best Supporting Actor
Who’s nominated?
- Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
- Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
- Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
- Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
- Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton
Who should win?
Javier Bardem.
Who will win?
Javier Bardem.
Best Actress
Who’s nominated?
- Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age
- Julie Christie – Away From Her
- Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
- Laura Linney – The Savages
- Ellen Page – Juno
Who got the shaft?
Anna Farris for Smiley Face.
Who should win?
Having only seen one of the performances I can’t rightly say.
Who will win?
This one’s too close to call. Early word had this going to Julie Christie, though Marion Cotillard is reportedly making a strong run. Blanchett and Linney are likely out of the running, though Ellen Page could take it if the Academy decides to go for Juno in a big way. My guess is that Cotillard takes it for La Vie En Rose in a semi-upset.
Best Supporting Actress
Who’s nominated?
- Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
- Ruby Dee – American Gangster
- Saoirse Ronan – Atonement
- Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
- Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
Who should win?
Since I haven’t seen Cate Blanchett’s performance I can’t comment on it, but of the ones I did see, I’d say Amy Ryan.
Who will win?
Another close one. This was Amy Ryan’s early on, but support is building for Ruby Dee and Tilda Swinton. Saoirse Ronan’s probably out of the running. I say Ryan gets it for Gone Baby Gone, but watch it go to Ronan in a huge upset.
Cinematography
Who’s nominated?
- The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford - Roger Deakins
- Atonement - Seamus McGarvey
- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Janusz Kaminski
- No Country for Old Men - Roger Deakins
- There Will Be Blood - Robert Elswit
Who got the shaft?
The Darjeeling Limited cinematographer Robert D. Yeoman.
Who should win?
There Will Be Blood cinematographer Robert Elswit.
Who will win?
Yet another tough call. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and No Country for Old Men share the same cinematographer, Roger Deakins, which may split their votes, and Atonement has the (now legendary) four and half minute tracking shot which certainly ups its stock. But I say There Will Be Blood’s Robert Elswit benefits from the split and pulls off the upset.
Adapted Screenplay
Who’s nominated?
- Atonement - Christopher Hampton
- Away From Her - Sarah Polley
- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Ronald Harwood
- No Country for Old Men - Joel and Ethan Coen
- There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson
Who should win?
There Will Be Blood’s script by Paul Thomas Anderson’s script is only loosely based on the first hundred pages of Upton Sinclair’s novel, so, in keeping with the spirit of the award, Joel and Ethan Coen should win for No Country for Old Men. That said, if PTA’s name is read on Oscar night, I wouldn’t be disappointed.
Who will win?
No Country for Old Men writers Joel and Ethan Coen.
Original Screenplay
Who’s nominated?
- Juno – Diablo Cody
- Lars and the Real Girl – Nancy Oliver
- Michael Clayton – Tony Gilroy
- Ratatouille – Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird
- The Savages – Tamara Jenkins
Who got the shaft?
Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead writer Kelly Masterson in a big way.
Who should win?
Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead writer Kelly Masterson.
Who will win?
Juno writer Diablo Cody.
Best Director
Who’s nominated?
- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly – Julian Schnabel
- Juno – Jason Reitman
- Michael Clayton – Tony Gilroy
- No Country for Old Men - Joel and Ethan Coen
- There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson
Who got the shaft?
Sydney Lumet for Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead.
Who should win?
Paul Thomas Anderson.
Who will win?
Joel and Ethan Coen.
Best Picture
Who’s nominated?
Who got the shaft?
Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead.
Who should win?
There Will Be Blood.
Who will win?
Given the Academy’s long history of A–Favoring sentiment over substance, and B–Pissing me off, Juno is a strong contender. But ultimately, I think the Academy will play it safe and goes with the less divisive No Country for Old Men.
There you have it. The big show’s Sunday, February 24, and I’ll do a postmortem on Monday. Until then, post your predictions below.
Update: Oscars 2008: Postmortem
